The performance of the Australian housing sector will play a key role in any recovery in consumer spending and retail sales growth, an independent economic forecaster says.
Deloitte Access Economics believes the election of a majority government should allow for more certainty around political policy and improve general confidence.
This should see retail spending pick up in the September quarter, with a more sustainable improvement kicking into 2014/15.
Deloitte Access’ quarterly retail report on Wednesday showed there was a promising start to 2013 before sales turned “tragic” by mid year, with overall weak growth.
This was likely due to a drift higher in the jobless rate and the marking down of economic growth prospects by both Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Now a retail sales recovery may be on the way as house prices start to lift.
“When people are bidding up the price of housing they are also lifting their rate of retail spending,” Deloitte Access partner David Rumbens said in the report.
“With housing affordability much improved from two years ago, this channel may form a powerful driver.”
Home building is also lifting on the back of population growth and low interest rates.
The forecaster expects real, or inflation adjusted, retail sales to expand by 2.4 per cent in 2013/14, after 2.8 per cent growth in the previous financial year.
Then sales should grow by up to 3.6 per cent in 2014/15, helped again by low interest rates and a modest improvement in the jobs outlook.
Mr Rumbens expects low interest rates will especially benefit NSW, Victoria and the ACT in terms of spending lifts.
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